This article first appeared on the WeChat public number: Breck Agricultural Data . The content of the article belongs to the author's personal opinion and does not represent the position of Hexun.com. Investors should act accordingly, at their own risk.
As the well-known big event, the Brexit referendum will be held on Thursday, June 23, and the global financial market is on the verge of an enemy. With the triumph of the referendum in the polls, the market suddenly realized that the referendum is no longer just a slogan, but a multiple-choice question that may rewrite the global capital market. The global futures commodity market has been affected, and the market has experienced huge fluctuations. In this view, the prices of domestic and international oils and fats have risen and fallen, and the cotton market has been dragged down. The market is stagflation and stabilizes.
Domestic cottonseeds hold high prices
It is understood that the current price of hairy seeds in Xinjiang has risen to 1.52 yuan / kg, still a small amount of continuous shipments in the local and surrounding areas, because the cottonseed resources are almost exhausted, the inner real estate area is mostly under the seedless In the state of the pot, the situation of goods is less difficult to collect. After the purchase price of Xinjiang cotton seeds in Shandong is close to 1.7 yuan / kg, only a few manufacturers still have the intention to purchase, basically to digest the stock materials to maintain the tail processing. Recently, the overall high price of cotton by-products has become more and more difficult to increase. The price of cottonseed and downstream cotton by-products is still upside down. The cottonseeds in the main producing areas have acquired the processing of Yixing, and the purchase of cottonseed is more prominent. The short-term cottonseed gains are once again suppressed.
Partially lower cotton oil
Cotton processing is in the final stage, cotton oil resources are insufficient in all parts of the country, market purchases and sales continue to be light, and most manufacturers' prices continue to be stable in the weak. Due to the high price of raw cottonseed, the demand for oil in the main producing area cotton oil plant has not decreased. The mainstream price of third-grade cotton oil in Shandong area is 5,900 yuan/ton. At the same time, the domestic refined cotton oil market continues to be weak and weak. Shandong The mainstream price of cotton salad is only 6150-6200 yuan / ton, because the market is not optimistic, the mainstream price of third-grade cotton oil in Shaanxi has been significantly reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 6150 yuan / ton; Xinjiang cotton oil market also continues to be weak, three The mainstream cotton oil in northern Xinjiang reported 6,000 yuan / ton, while the southern Xinjiang is more than 5800-5900 yuan / ton, because Xinjiang cotton oil and the mainland price are basically the same, the current Xinjiang cotton oil is still mainly based on local shipments, and local The market capacity itself is limited, cotton oil shipments continue to be sluggish, and the market is weakly stagnant. From the perspective of the external market, due to the poor fundamentals of the domestic oil and fat market, the market's overall supply and demand loose pattern is weak, and as a small oil with lack of cost-effective advantages, the pressure on cotton oil market is self-evident. From the perspective of its own market, the domestic cotton processing has been accelerated, and the supply of cotton oil in the local market is running low. In addition, the growth of raw cottonseed in the late stage is still rapid, and the bottom support of the cost is strong. It is difficult to limit the decline of cotton oil, and the cotton oil remains stable in the short-term. Weak trend.
Cotton quilts offer high prices
At present, the mainstream price of 46% protein cotton aphid in Shandong is stable at 3350-3400 yuan / ton, 42% protein cotton quilt factory price rose to 3100 yuan / ton, continue to maintain just need to ship, because the transaction continues to be light, many manufacturers according to their own turnover The capital needs, the actual transaction still exists 50-100 yuan / ton bargaining space, of which the price of dephenolized cotton protein manufacturers in Shaanxi temporarily maintained 3600 yuan / ton, the recent high price of goods is still not smooth; Xinjiang area strong cotton quotation stable stable Strong, mainly due to the shortage of goods in the late Xinjiang, the traders in southern Xinjiang continue to increase the price of 100-200 yuan / ton, the current 46% protein is reported to the highest 3200 yuan / ton, 42% protein Xinjiang is standing 3,000 yuan / Tons, continued to focus on local and peripheral shipments, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement was once again suppressed. The downstream feed mills maintained the strategy of using them at the same time. The high-priced shipment pressure of cotton aphid was still in the market, and the market purchase and sales were relatively light. Recently, in the absence of obvious news, the domestic company (3282, 62.00, 1.93%) maintained the trend of shock consolidation. The spot market in the pattern of tight supply and demand has remained strong. The current mainstream price of port soybean meal is 3400-3500. Yuan/ton, the market confidence in the apes market is still there, still conducive to the high price of cotton aphid, but after the cotton aphid continues to rise sharply, the domestic cotton aphid has obvious price-inferior advantage over other feed ingredients. Continued to shrink sharply, the market is mainly supported by cost strength, and it is still easy to rise and fall in the short term.
The price of cotton hulls has fallen slightly. The weakening of the price of cotton husks is mainly affected by the following factors: First, the recent heavy rains in the south have seriously affected transportation, and the trading in the cotton husk market has continued to decline. In particular, small cotton hulls from manufacturers in Shandong Province The goods were obstructed obviously. Some manufacturers in Shandong actively adjusted the product structure. The quality of the cotton shells was close to the medium-price cotton shell with high cost performance. At present, the price of small cotton shells of Jiaxiang area manufacturers is obviously adjusted back to 100 yuan to 2150 yuan/ton. Second, with the previous period Xinjiang cotton shells have flowed into the mainland market in large quantities, and the demand for replenishment of growers in the Mainland has been significantly reduced. After a round of concentrated replenishment, the wait-and-see mood of downstream mushroom growers has increased, and the price of cotton shells in various regions has been affected by this. Softening, the current mainstream price of cotton husk in the mainland is 2000-2100 yuan / ton, only the price of some large manufacturers is still deadlocked at 2200 yuan / ton; the third is the current cotton shell price is nearly 500 yuan / ton higher than the same period last year In the same period of the past four years, the average value was nearly 600 yuan / ton, and the downstream edible mushroom growers continued to decline, especially compared with cotton shells and corn (1575, -13.00, -0.82). %) The prices of edible fungi, such as core, straw, and bran, are all cheaper. Farmers have been actively seeking alternative culture techniques for cotton hulls, which also inhibited the price of cotton husks. However, overall, although the recent shipment of cotton shells has slowed slightly, the manufacturers in the main producing areas still hold the goods and reluctant to sell, and the processing of domestic cotton by-products is accelerated. The main producing areas can still insist on the start-up manufacturers, producing in cotton shells. With the scarcity of supply and the cost support, the sharp decline may be small.
The short velvet transaction is relatively light. The domestic market is supported by the high price of raw cottonseed. The demand for the velvet of the oil plant in the main plant area is not reduced. The mainstream quotation of the refined grade mixed velvet in Shandong area is maintained at 6100-6300 yuan/ton, and the manufacturers are reluctant to sell and keep the price less. Prominent, because the current high price has hit a new high in the past five years, short velvet shipments are obviously blocked, only some manufacturers insist on selling with the production, in order to speed up the tail goods out of the warehouse, mixed velvet offer slightly lowered, today's Shandong Jiaxiang area manufacturers better quality The factory price of the mixed velvet is obviously 100 to 6100 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. At present, the actual transaction is more than 6,000 yuan/ton; the manufacturers in Hebei have no more goods to stop reporting; the manufacturers in Shanxi have not enough cash, the mixed velvet The quotation has obviously increased to 5,500 yuan / ton, with a small number of transactions. Affected by the recent sharp increase in cotton linters in the Mainland, many domestic refined cotton mills have been forced to switch to Indian stock purchases, and the prices of imported short velvets from Qingdao, Uzbekistan, Turkey and West Africa have also risen. Under the support of active stocking by downstream manufacturers, the price and price have continued to rise, and there is even a shortage of supply. Only after the influx of imported short velvet, the domestic short-staple market demand gap has been supplemented. Recently, the domestic downstream viscose and cotton pulp market performance was weak, and the overall trading atmosphere in the short-staple market turned weak. In the short term, the short-selling market was limited to a high price stagflation, and the stalemate remained stable.
Contributing author: Zhang Chengge
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