Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum
Sina Finance News December 10 news, at the 2016 Energy Transformation High-level Forum held today, Sun Xiansheng, secretary general of the International Energy Forum, said in his speech that there will be a certain rebound in oil prices in the future, but how high it is, and then want to return In the past, the possibilities are very small. In the process of energy transformation and market changes, a relatively stable situation should also be adopted. Because oil prices are too low, investment has fallen sharply, the lowest amount of new reserves discovered in the past 25 years. In this way, in the next three or five years, supply will continue to occur again. It should be a more balanced transformation process that will enable it to be sustainable.
The following is a speech record:
I am very grateful to the Research Center of the State Council for asking me to attend the conference. I think this is a good learning opportunity. This conference is my third meeting. This time I came back from India, and our International Energy Forum and the Indian government and IGU jointly A global ministerial gas conference was opened, and some colleagues may have seen the Indian Prime Minister also attended the conference. The day before yesterday was the meeting on natural gas held by PetroChina. I attended this meeting today. I think this is also a good learning opportunity for us.
I will briefly talk about the situation of the global oil market. In 2014, I summarized the global oil market situation into two sentences, called the three major two falls. In 2015, I also summarized it into two sentences, called Five control and four guarantees, highly summarized. The three major two major losses are mainly about crude oil, refined oil, and natural gas, including LNG. They are also beginning to supply more than demand, and the two are the price of oil. The five-control four guarantees are measures for the control and guarantee of the energy industry in the case of low oil prices. Today is the end of 2016. I probably put it into four words, one is more, one is weak, the third is super, and the fourth is change. What is this more? I probably summed up there are more than three. There are many incidents of black swan. The comrades in front of me mentioned many US presidential elections, the British referendum, the German bank bankruptcy, I know the German bank governor, went to my meeting last month, I invited him to a meeting, I said that you are very Fortunately, I did not expect that a bank like Germany would go bankrupt. It happened that you escaped. He was lucky to be the Director of the Energy Department. I just told me that I could be a little more. Today, if we want to use that sentence, the relevant experts in the industry say, let me say that, we can say a little more.
This black swan also includes changes in OPEC. Everyone knows that OPEC is to maintain market share. In the past 30 months, the strategy and changes are very big. After the election of the new US president, there should be some new changes in the new energy policy. Last month, I asked Obama's energy consultant, Trump's energy policy and strategy consultant. I asked him to meet in India and invited three of the world's most famous top energy experts to give me the chair. One is him. It is equal to him being the energy consultant of the two presidents. Another is the former Iranian Prime Minister’s energy adviser, and the third is the former Director of the Energy Agency, which revealed to us some of the changes in energy policy after the new US president came up.
In terms of big policies, many comrades in WeChat have passed, one center, two principles, and four basic points, which are very well summarized. I will not repeat them.
After the new president takes office, it is very likely that there will be major changes in energy policy and the past. This change is likely to have an impact on global energy. The United States still has a big country, so his influence is different.
In addition, there is another thing in the black swan that is the tide of refugees from Africa. I don’t think that the influence of the refugees is so big, it has a series of influences such as the withdrawal of Germany and the United Kingdom, so there are many incidents of black swan. I probably æ‹So few things.
The second is the majority of oil institutions. Everyone knows that the past is mainly OPEC, and now it is not an OPEC country. Now OPEC's own share of production has changed, especially the development of shale gas in the United States. After the ministerial meeting of the International Energy Forum held in Algeria on September 26, the ministerial informal meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was held after the meeting ended at noon on the 29th, at which time the OPEC was basically determined to limit production. The basic idea of ​​insured price, so this time I had several experts meeting with them and learned that a big framework was determined from that meeting. After that, the US shale oil has developed greatly but the production has been reduced after three months. One million barrels, but the entire production capacity and technological advancement as well as cost control are progressing very fast.
The third is about wealthy. The reason why oil prices can't come up is mainly due to oversupply, supply problems, demand problems, dollar value-adding problems, high inventory problems, and shale oil.
Then, there are also three weaknesses. In summary, this weakness is a weak demand. As mentioned earlier, in addition to the BRICS countries we have developed, the IEF is a 72 exporting country, including 14 member states of the Petroleum Exporting Organization. Libya, Libya recently wrote to me through the parliamentary process. Of the 29 member states of the IEA, 28 are in the IEF. Four of the BRICS countries are in the IEF, and Brazil is worse. Brazil is implementing the parliamentary procedures and is coming in.
From the perspective of these major developing countries, the current demand is relatively weak. Experts who spoke in the morning also talked about changes in China's energy demand. Despite some growth, it has weakened compared to expectations, including countries such as Brazil. There are of course several factors in this, the three major contradictions, and one is the cause of climate change. After the Paris Agreement, 185 countries are promoting this, and the other is energy transformation. Another is the development of the economy itself. The reasons for these factors, as well as the improvement of energy efficiency and technological progress, have caused The weakening of demand.
The second is that the speed of rebalancing is weak. The low oil price is now 30 months. The length of the weakening time and the magnitude of the decline should be said to be beyond the expectations of our industry experts. Therefore, this speed should be said to be Relatively slow, relatively low. The extent of the next step, I will talk about later, I am afraid that there is no such thing as everyone imagined, even the experts of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC countries promote this matter.
The third is the weak remaining production capacity. OPEC's remaining production capacity, that is, the capacity that can be taken out again, is basically the same in other countries, and there is still a part of Saudi Arabia, which is about one million barrels. This should be said to be the future. In the future, if he wants to control the entire supply, he should say that he has certain difficulties.
The third one is super. I have summarized the two supers. One is that the cost of the US shale oil and the efficiency of the production increase faster than everyone expected. I also talked about oil prices in the past. Even this OPEC and non-OPEC, OPEC decided to cut production to 32.5 million barrels. The whole OPEC is 1.2 million barrels, and non-OPEC is 600,000 barrels. Less than 40.05 barrels. Russia has undertaken half of the non-OPEC, 300,000 barrels. Where is his biggest pressure? Mainly because the US shale oil has risen from the original 500,000 barrels to 4 million barrels, all of a sudden more, and technological advances, cost control, from the original 70, the cost of 80 US dollars in the past two to three In the years, the rapid decline. Now the basic cost is about 40 dollars, which is a little higher, a little bit more, worse, better, even three or forty-five dollars. If the oil price returns to 60 dollars, a bucket in the Middle East. For example, if you earn 50 yuan in oil, you can earn 10 yuan and 20 yuan in this shale. I can also produce it. Once it comes out, this balance will balance it. So there is no such thing as Saudi Arabia's ability to control itself in the past, so this down-regulation effect is beyond expectations, and this is a big new change.
In addition, the development of renewable energy is also very fast. The experts mentioned earlier. After the Paris agreement, under the promotion and support of China's efforts, it also includes environmental protection, smog, green energy, low carbon. In terms of sustainable development, great power has been exerted, and these are all driven.
Therefore, solar energy and wind energy, including the new concept of nuclear power in the new policy, should also be said to have a relatively large development.
Finally, regarding this change, it should be said that this year or 2017, we should face many challenges and new changes. One is the existence of variables in the US energy policy. This is a very important one after the new president takes office. The point is how to make the United States stronger, how to make the United States stronger, and how to make American energy more independent. Due to shale oil, and because Canada’s oil and gas did not go, it was sold with money. Canada last year, the United States would buy me a plane ticket and let me go. I did have something else to do. I talked to their minister. They especially hope to be able to sell Canadian gas around the United States because it does pay off. The United States basically guarantees him by Canada and Mexico. The role of the Middle East and the future geopolitical and energy supply should be what it should be. Everyone knows that the last US Congress was passed again, and it was also a high vote to pass sanctions against Iran. Although this was lifted in the 5+1 negotiation in the parliamentary negotiations, the US government imposed a separate sanction on it for another ten years. If there is such a new change in the next step, I think this is common to all of us. Research questions.
Then, OPEC, everyone knows that the purpose of limiting production taken 30 months ago is to maintain market share, that is, to maintain market share. Now after these 30 months, I am also working there, and even the ministers have started. Reduce wages, minus 20%. The entire budget balances Buhler. In such a situation, such a measure is currently being taken. Of course, the cooperation inside this also includes the promotion of Venezuela and the cooperation of Russia, etc., and it is not possible to rely on OPEC alone. In the past two years of wars, they said that I suffered such a large loss, and now I am limited in production, so there are also great changes in this respect. But at the moment, I personally feel that after they negotiated this year, I estimate that it will play a certain role, and the oil price will also rebound. However, if you want to go back to the past, the possibility is very small, because I also talked about it before. In the case of shale oil in the United States, if it is estimated that the US shale will slowly come back after more than 60 yuan, I think this possibility is still very high.
Then, to make a suggestion, I feel that one is in the process of energy transformation and the process of market changes, I think we should still adopt a relatively stable situation. Because the price of oil is too low, there are comrades in front of it. In the past, the entire investment process has been greatly reduced. The reserves are the lowest year for discovering new reserves in the past 25 years. why? There is no way to do it. No money was invested in exploration, no wells were drilled, and no oil was found. If you say that a form of exploration like this, in another three or five years, your supply will be renewed, so the oil price is too low. It is not good for the producing country, the oil company, and the oil price is too high. So I think It should be a relatively balanced process of transformation that enables it to be sustainable, to ensure that producers have a certain profit, and to ensure that prices are relatively reasonable.
I also talked about the issue of natural gas in the morning. I think that I also have a harvest at this meeting. The Prime Minister of India said that India’s economic energy policy is a policy based on natural gas. What inspired this thing. I think everyone can think about it. If China is due to the endowment of natural resources, we have a lot of coal, a lot of production, and a high consumption. However, the tolerance of our environment has been confirmed. From the perspective of future development, I personally feel that natural gas It must be the most important natural gas in China and India. Although it is also one of fossil energy, coal, crude oil and natural gas, natural gas and coal oil are absolutely different. There is a big difference, so the role of natural gas is More than these, and according to the predictions of these units, fossil energy is still the main energy source in 2040, so I think that I want to promote natural gas. The biggest problem at present is how to straighten out the gas price. Of course, there are still more complicated problems. In the past, long-term contracts signed, how to deal with the past prices, the current spot price of LNG is cheaper than the long-term trade price, which is all upside down. I don’t talk about the reasons for the time. In general, the rationalization of the gas price in the market will promote the vigorous development of natural gas in China.
The third is about international cooperation. Including trade cooperation, including our international exchanges and academics. I also talked with Minister Zhao during lunch time. We opened last year and opened a ministerial meeting on September 27 this year. Delegations, 53 government delegations, 15 international organizations and more than 30 oil companies. I think in the future I hope that everyone can work together to make international cooperation a success. IEF may not have any money, non-profit organizations, but I told some comrades that I can help you become famous. Because you have a good research report, send it to me. I have a half-page attached to your report. I said why we chose this report and sent it to the ministers of 72 oil countries. The ministers think this report is good. A batch gave him the leadership. I will list your name below, so that more than 70 oil ministers will know you, although I can't give you money, but when he finds you, you become a world-class energy expert.
We strengthen cooperation and wish everyone great development in the new year. Thank you.
Sina statement: All meeting records are on-the-spot shorthand, without the review of the speaker, Sina.com posted this article for the purpose of transmitting more information, does not mean agree with its views or confirm its description.
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