Analysts have great differences in market, suggesting steady progress

Introduction: The following is the main strategist Yan Yugen's speech at the time of attending an investment salon. He mainly elaborated on his own views on several topics with different market differences. For detailed analysis, see the relevant report of Haitong Strategy Team.

Striving for stability: A-share market outlook

Now the macro-strategists are more divided on the market, the optimists are more analyzed from the income statement, and the pessimists are mainly worried about the balance sheet. I am generally optimistic that this is a shocking city with a central uplift. I talked about my own views on the three differences in the market.

Disagreement 1: Is liquidity a big turning point?

In 2014-15, the market's ups and downs, big opening and closing, skyrocketing and plunging, the memory left to us is too deep, and even unforgettable for life. And all of this, the looseness of liquidity and the tightening of a very crucial role. Therefore, everyone pays great attention to liquidity. One of the logics of the pessimists is that the central bank raised the open market interest rate in a disguised rate hike, and liquidity has turned inflection points. From the past history, there are two scenarios for interest rate rise. One is a systematic upward trend. For example, in March 2007-08 August, October 10-11 July, the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate and the deposit reserve ratio. Once this happens, we will switch to the bear market thinking. Whether it is today's bear tomorrow bear or the bear of the day, anyway, it is ultimately a bear market. Because the central bank's contraction of the currency marks the return of funds to the banking system, whether it is stocks, bonds or futures, art, all asset prices will fall. Another scenario is that the central bank only adjusts interest rates structurally and raises the repo rate for de-leverage. It has appeared in 2013 and has little impact on the market. How do you distinguish between the two? The core is to look at a value - CPI. In 2013, there was no pressure on inflation. The central bank did not systematically tighten the currency. It only adjusted the open market interest rate for the debt market. When the stock market had structural opportunities, the main board fluctuated and the small and medium-sized enterprises fluctuated. This year's monetary policy environment is more like 2013, but the position of the main board and the small and medium-sized ones is reversed.

Another concern at the liquidity level is deleveraging. Pessimists believe that the real economy has a lot of downward pressure when banks repair their balance sheets. Indeed, from the perspective of the United States, Europe, and even Hong Kong, the de-leveraging of these economies is often the beginning of a new round of economic downturn, but China’s deleveraging is likely to be the end of the previous round of economic downturn. Because our system background is different. These developed economies in Europe and the United States are highly marketized economies. They adjust the real economy through financial means. When de-leveraging, the business cycle is shrinking and the growth rate of the real economy is falling. China is not a full-market economy. The government is a very powerful participant, intervening in the economy and affecting the rhythm and order of economic operations. When the Chinese government established four major management companies to deal with bad bank debts in 1999, the GDP growth rate was the lowest point, and then the arc bottom slowly recovered. Because before this, the real economy had already dismantled the "lei", GDP fell by 6 years from 1993 to 1999, which has suppressed investment overheating, and a large number of state-owned workers have been laid off and reemployed. The supply-side structural reform proposed “de-capacity, de-leverage, and de-stocking”. In reality, the order of implementation was “de-capacity, de-stocking, and de-leverage”. De-leverage has not yet been implemented. Dealing with real estate destocking, the "lei" of the real economy has been demolished, and then the de-leverage is just a tail. After all, our total debt ratio is not terrible. The government is going to leverage and turn leverage, which is to change space in time. .

Disagreement 2: The profit growth rate is about to fall to the top?

Since the end of last year, I have always stressed that the core variables of the market are already profitable, so we wrote a series of reports discussing the trend of profitability. Indeed, from the perspective of year-on-year growth rate, the high probability is a high point in the first quarter of this year. This is an argument of the pessimist. The problem is that this is the base period effect. The key is to look at the medium-term trend and specific data. My judgment is that corporate profits are welcoming the mid-term turning point. In 2010, net profit began to fall and ROE fell. In the second half of the year, the bottom of the year began to level off. In 17 years, it is expected to gradually form a U-shaped bottom turning point and 17 years of net profit. 8% year-on-year, the future slowly returned to double-digit growth. This judgment is based on two points of analysis, which are two different points.

First, I believe that China's economic growth rate is likely to have found the bottom of the medium term, and economic stability is the premise for improving corporate profits. This point is not divided in the short term. Both of them believe that short-term stocks will go up and differences will be in the medium term. In the medium term, we can see the Kuznets cycle and the Jugrah cycle, representing the growth rate of real estate investment in the Kuznets cycle, the growth rate of fixed capital formation, the capacity utilization rate of the Jugla cycle, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment. Basically they are at the bottom of the past two or three decades. One of the logics of worrying that economic growth has not stabilized is that it has not seen new growth drivers, similar to real estate and the WTO after 2000. In fact, the growth of stability does not require such a large force, we are talking about stability, not a rebound. It is recalled that the developed economies such as the United States and Japan have experienced two stages. When the small and large, the GDP accelerates, and then the L-shaped one returns to the middle and low, that is, the GDP growth rate is stable from the big to the strong. China's economic growth is likely to be entering this stage, and consumption upgrades support the resilience of economic growth. We can find a lot of micro-evidence of consumption upgrades, such as Great Wall Motor (quote 601633, buy), Geely Automobile representative's own auto brand, Boss Electric (quote 002508, buy) representative of small appliances, Sophia (quote 002572, buy ) representative of furniture, sportswear, Anta Sports, etc. Why is the consumption upgrade accelerated? Especially in the third-tier cities, several factors have changed. First, the per capita GDP of the third-tier cities has exceeded 10,000 US dollars, and the fourth-line has passed 6,000 US dollars. Second, China’s investment in infrastructure over the past few years, high-speed rail extending in all directions, has been eight vertical and eight horizontal. Third, the commercial channels have sunk, logistics express, shopping malls, and theaters have all been laid to the third line. Fourth, the shift of industry and people, the rising cost has led the manufacturing industry to turn to the third and fourth line, and migrant workers began to work nearby. Consumer goods spending has already reached 63% of GDP. Without too high investment growth, economic growth can be stabilized.

Second, in the context of economic stability, why can corporate profits be upward? In the past 30 years, the growth rate of corporate profits has indeed risen and fallen with the growth of the economy. If we look at it from a long-term perspective, we can divide the relationship between the two into two phases. Drawing on overseas experience, economic growth can be divided into two stages. First, Adam Smith's increased factor-driven growth is a quantitative increase. At this time, corporate profitability is closely related to GDP growth. Second, Schumpeterian Innovation drives growth, which is a qualitative improvement. At this time, the economy is flat and profitable. For example, Japan after World War II, from 1945 to 1968, was the first stage. A large amount of investment drove the economy to take off rapidly. GDP was around 9% year-on-year, and profit growth and economic growth were simultaneously changing. From 1974 to 1989, it was the second stage. After 68-74 years of economic backwardness, GDP fell from around 9% to around 4%. In 74 years, GDP began to fluctuate year-on-year, but the profitability of enterprises has risen steadily. The ROE has increased from around 15% in the previous stage to 20%. The industrial structure has undergone significant changes, and the profit margins of precision machinery manufacturing such as electronic machinery and electrical machinery have increased significantly. China is entering the second stage, and the industrial structure has undergone subtle changes. The proportion of the tertiary industry has risen from 44% to 54%. The cyclical industry concentration is changing, especially in industries with high proportion of private enterprises, such as chemicals, paper, and construction machinery. Zhongtai Chemical in the PVC industry (quote 002092, buy), Hualu Hengsheng in the urea industry (quote 600426, buy), Sany Heavy Industry in the machinery industry (quote 600031, buy), these companies last year and the industry The stock price is very good, although the industry demand can not return to the previous height, but the company's position in the industry has risen. Micro-watch consumption continues to escalate, and sales of self-owned brand auto brands such as Maotai and other high-end liquor, Geely and Great Wall continue to improve, and the stock price continues to rise. Overall, the growth rate of A-share net profit has been flat in the middle of the 12-year period, while the net profit growth rate of the consumer industry has rebounded from 1% at the end of 12% to the current 20%. The technology industry has returned from the negative level at the end of 12 to nearly 30% now. . At the same time, the proportion of profits in the technology and consumer industries is rising, only 7-8% five years ago, now exceeding 15%, and the contribution to market profit has increased. We expect net profit in the A-share market to be 3% from 2016 and 8% in 2017, ushered in a mid-term turning point.

Disagreement 3: Didn't it rise after the round?

From the perspective of the disk, the consumption of the mid-stream and liquor households represented by construction cement has risen this year, and the upstream resources that have risen last year, it seems that many industries have gone up, and the market has not soared. What? I believe that this kind of rotation is a sign of the phenomenon, the essence is that A shares have entered the era of two-dimensional investment. In the past, when doing industry configuration and style selection, it was often divided into cycle and consumption, growth and value from the perspective of one-dimensional, attack cycle, growth, defense, consumption and value. Now the market environment has changed subtly, and consumption and cycle have opportunities. It seems that the rise is actually a structural opportunity. The leading consumer in consumption is the brand consumption of consumption upgrade. The biggest increase in the cycle is the leader or policy theme. The valuation of growth stocks is lower than the market value of the market. Only the performance stocks have performance growth. The so-called theme cycle + consumption upgrade + value growth, all areas are the first-line leading stocks. This structural change stems from two aspects: First, the structural changes in the economic structure are adjusted, cycle and consumption, which is the transformation of the above analysis, which is a good thing. Second, the structure of A-share investors is changing. The proportion of funds, such as insurance, banking, and social security, which pursue absolute returns, is rising, and value investment and trend investment are more balanced. This feature will continue, and some industries are lagging behind and low valuations. Looking at the long-term, financial stocks will be valued in the second half of the year. Financial stocks are a sector with a large allocation of public funds. The allocation of funds, cycles, consumption, and technology has been balanced. The low allocation of finance, especially banks, is essentially a lack of confidence in macroeconomic stabilization. Now, the AH spread of bank stocks is already very small. In the article "A-share Hong Kong stocks or Hong Kong stocks A-shares", we analyzed that 80% of Hong Kong is an institutional investor, valued data, A-share investors are re-expected. In the second half of the year, as long as the economic growth is stable, A-share investors may repair the expectations of financial stocks, not to mention the big banks' dynamic PE is only 5-6 times, and the PB is only 0.8 times.

To make a general summary, as a whole, we still characterize the market as a shock city with a central uplift. The city of shocks is also divided into benign and malignant. The former is like spring, the temperature is rising continuously, and it is prepared for the bull market symbolizing summer. The latter is like autumn, the temperature is falling, and eventually it becomes a bear market similar to winter. In August-November 2009, the Shanghai Composite Index's high point of 3,478 points fluctuated and fell back to 3,067 points, which was a vicious shock, and finally ushered in a bear market that fell by a thousand points. The shock since the end of January 16 is a benign shock of the central government's rise and fall. It is spring, the Shanghai Composite Index is 2638-3100-2800 in the first half of the year, and the second half is 2800-3300-3000. The improvement of fundamentals is the core reason for the continuous rise of the center of the shock city. Since it is a second retreat, there will be a retreat in the future, and there will be a cold in the spring. In the second half of the second quarter, attention will be paid to the interference of the policy and funds. First, domestic factors, focusing on the deleveraging policy. Second, foreign factors track Sino-US economic and trade relations. Therefore, in terms of operation, it is recommended to strive for stability and step by step.

38cm Round Placemats

A placemat is a piece of fabric, vinyl or woven material that is placed under a place setting and is designed to protect the dining table underneath. They are an alternative to tablecloths, which cover the entire surface of the table. Typically placemats are used in less formal settings, such as a kitchen table or island.

Advantages:

1.Design team:we have a professional design team. Over 5000 designs for selection.

2.Rapid response to your needs:welcome to contact us if you have any problems.
3.Standard: All of our models are approved by ISO9001, SGS and Testex.

4.Efficiency: Our 10 designers will keep you updated with 15 new items each month.

5.Professional factory:we are the biggest manufacturer of table cloth in china,competitive price with high quality.

Placemats Amazon,Dining Table Mat,Dinning Mat,Household Product

IUIU Household Co.,Ltd , https://www.iuiugroup.com